Prathiba
22/10/2021
As of 30th September in Scotland,
The Automated Regression Integrated Moving Average technique is used for the COVID-19 Time Series Data.
Based on statistical parameters (lower AIC, RMSE and p-value), an ARIMA (3,1,2) model has been chosen for Hospital projections.
Based on statistical parameters (lower AIC, RMSE and p-value)
ARIMA(2,1,3) with lag = 1 has been chosen.
Hospitalization Projection :
## Data Dickey_Fuller p_value
## 1 Original -1.088300 0.9208883
## 2 First-Ordered -7.507224 0.0100000
Manual ARIMA
##
## ========================================================
## ARIMA(3,1,2) ARIMA(3,1,0) ARIMA(0,1,2)
## --------------------------------------------------------
## ar1 0.92 *** -0.26 **
## (0.09) (0.09)
## ar2 -0.58 *** -0.23 *
## (0.11) (0.09)
## ar3 -0.31 *** -0.16
## (0.09) (0.09)
## ma1 -1.35 *** -0.28 **
## (0.03) (0.09)
## ma2 1.00 *** -0.17 *
## (0.04) (0.08)
## --------------------------------------------------------
## AIC 1002.61 1027.69 1025.20
## AICc 1003.35 1028.03 1025.40
## BIC 1019.39 1038.87 1033.58
## Log Likelihood -495.31 -509.84 -509.60
## Num. obs. 121 121 121
## ========================================================
## *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
Automated ARIMA (lag = 1)
##
## ============================
## ARIMA(3,1,2)
## ----------------------------
## ar1 0.94 ***
## (0.10)
## ar2 -0.56 ***
## (0.11)
## ar3 -0.25 *
## (0.10)
## ma1 -1.44 ***
## (0.05)
## ma2 0.94 ***
## (0.04)
## ----------------------------
## AIC 983.97
## AICc 984.71
## BIC 1000.70
## Log Likelihood -485.99
## Num. obs. 120
## ============================
## *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
##
## Ljung-Box test
##
## data: Residuals from ARIMA(3,1,2)
## Q* = 33.437, df = 5, p-value = 3.082e-06
##
## Model df: 5. Total lags used: 10
Based on the (AIC),(RMSE), and (MAPE) , it’s been identified that the model ARIMA(3, 1, 2) with lag = 1 seems reasonable.